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US consumers could notice major changes to their everyday shopping in the coming months. With tariffs of up to 145% on goods imported from China already in place, experts warn that some common items could become scarce, while others will rise significantly in price.
Chinese imports are falling rapidly. Although many retailers accelerated orders to stock up before the tariffs took effect, that initial momentum has faded.
According to data from logistics company Flexport, container bookings from China to the US have fallen by as much as 60%. In addition, blank sailings - cancelled ship trips to the port of Los Angeles - increased from six in April to 17 in May.
This massive drop could translate into empty shelves as early as this summer, right in the back-to-school season and ahead of holiday shopping.
The products that will be scarce due to Trump's tariffs on China
One of the most vulnerable sectors is toys, games and sporting goods. The US imports more than $30 billion of these products from China, ing for 73% of all its imports in the category. Analysts predict that this sector will be one of the hardest hit, which could mean shortages in stores during the holiday season.
The fashion industry could also suffer. Of the $17.3 billion in clothing imported from China, nearly $10 billion is knitted and $7.3 billion is non-knitted. Footwear will also be affected, as 36% of the shoes sold in the US come from the Asian country, equivalent to $9.8 billion. Companies such as Adidas have already warned of possible price increases.
At home, products such as duvets and coats are also at risk. The US relies on China for 77% of the feathers used as thermal filler. It also imports $18.5 billion in furniture and bedding from there, or 28% of the national total.
Common household items are also in the spotlight. Almost 30% of imported glassware and $3.1 billion worth of cutlery and metal tools come from China. Likewise, textile art - tapestries, embroidery and decorations - is another weak point: more than 50% of these imports, valued at $8.6 billion, are of Chinese origin.
The effects go beyond households. Industrial supply chains are under pressure. The US imports $124 billion in electrical machinery, $82 billion in nuclear reactors and boilers, $12 billion in iron or steel products, and $19.3 billion in plastics from China.
The risk is twofold: shortages of key inputs for US assemblies and rising costs that could be ed on to the end consumer.
The scenario is reminiscent of the disruptions experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, although more concentrated on specific products. As accumulated inventory runs out, companies with a high dependence on Chinese manufacturing will be most affected.
Experts recommend that consumers who are planning major purchases - especially those related to back-to-school or holiday gifts - do so as soon as possible. What is on the shelves today may not be there tomorrow.