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For the 2025 hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere, experts from the NOAA's National Weather Service predict above-normal activity in the Atlantic basin from June 1 to November 30
During this period, the NOAA estimates a 30% chance that the season will be normal in of hurricane formation, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
In total, the agency forecasts the formation of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of these, six to 10 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including three to five major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or greater). The NOAA estimates that its forecast is 70% reliable
"NOAA and the National Weather Service use the most advanced weather models and state-of-the-art hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and alerts," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "With these forecasting models and tools, we have never been better prepared for hurricane season.""As we witnessed last year with the significant inland flooding caused by Hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impact of hurricanes can extend far beyond coastal communities," said NOAA Acting Laura Grimm. "NOAA is critical to delivering early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property."
Factors that influence an atypical hurricane season
NOAA estimates that this hurricane season will be above normal due to factors such as the continuation of neutral ENSO conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts of weak wind shear and the possibility of increased activity due to the monsoon from West Africa, the main starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor the formation of tropical storms
In the Atlantic Basin, there are high temperatures in the ocean and a reduction in the trade winds. This combination favors greater energy available in the atmosphere to drive storm development, while the lower intensity of the winds allows storms to develop without interruption
This hurricane season also presents the possibility of a northward shift in the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that will generate some of the strongest and longest-lasting Atlantic storms.