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George Pickens is betting on himself - and so are the Dallas Cowboys.
After two seasons in Pittsburgh where he averaged just under 60 receiving yards per game, Pickens was shipped to Dallas in a move that had fans buzzing and analysts pulling up numbers. The raw talent is there. The highlight reels back it up. But if history has anything to say, the odds might be stacked against him.
The Steelers have quietly developed a strange pattern over the past 20 years: talented receivers thrive in Pittsburgh, then fade once they leave. Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes - even JuJu Smith-Schuster - all saw their per-game numbers drop significantly after moving on. The average decline? Over 20%. Sometimes far worse.
Pickens has the talent, but history says that might not be enough
That's the trend Pickens now walks into. And he's doing it in Dallas, where expectations are never small. With CeeDee Lamb as the top target and a fanbase always hungry for the next big star, Pickens enters an offense that needs him to hit the ground running - fast.
"George is explosive. He brings something different," said Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy during an interview with 105.3 The Fan. "We're excited about what he can do down the field." It's a good fit on paper. But the chemistry between Dak Prescott and his receivers hasn't always clicked right away - just ask Brandin Cooks or James Washington.
Still, Pickens isn't your average player. He's brash, confident, and thrives in one-on-one situations. His sideline toe-taps and contested grabs became routine in Pittsburgh. But replicating that in a new system, with a new quarterback and higher expectations? That's where others have stumbled.
According to Pro Football Reference, the list of Steelers receivers who left and saw their production drop is long - and consistent. Chase Claypool went from 52.4 YPG to just 11.4.Diontae Johnson dropped by nearly half. Even Antonio Brown, arguably the best of the bunch, saw his numbers slide.
The Cowboys are hoping Pickens breaks that cycle. But the reality is: he'll have to do something no other recent Steelers receiver has - get better after leaving.