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A retired Canadian astronaut has recently shared alarming details about a potentially devastating asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, which NASA is monitoring for a possible collision with Earth.
Chris Hadfield compared the asteroid to "a bullet zeroing in on Earth from deep space" and warned of its destructive potential.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to approach Earth on December 22, 2032, and has a 2.3 percent chance of directly hitting our planet. Despite this relatively low probability, its size and potential impact are cause for concern. NASA estimates that the asteroid's diameter ranges from 130 to 300 feet, which is about the same size as the Statue of Liberty.
The devastating potential of an impact
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, Hadfield explained, it would release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT. The blast would create a crater over 3,000 feet wide, wiping out a large urban area.
"It's about 500 times more powerful than the biggest bomb detonated during World War II," Hadfield said, emphasizing the immense destruction it could cause.
The shockwave from such an impact would spread rapidly, sending debris flying at speeds greater than 10 miles per second.
Hadfield likened the asteroid to a "grenade" the size of a small city, with its explosion potentially devastating much of the surrounding area. The asteroid's impact could be catastrophic for Earth, with damage potentially extending far beyond the immediate vicinity of the blast.
2024 YR4 was first detected by NASA in December 2024, 27 million miles away from Earth. Since its discovery, it has quickly climbed the ranks of NASA's Sentry risk list, which evaluates the likelihood of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) colliding with our planet. Hadfield suggested that the asteroid is most likely a stony mass, which means it would hit Earth in one solid piece rather than breaking apart upon entering the atmosphere.
However, there's another possibility: the asteroid may explode mid-air, causing an airburst similar to the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia. This explosion would not require the asteroid to reach the Earth's surface, yet could still result in widespread devastation. The Tunguska event flattened over 80 million trees, devastating 830 square miles of forest. While three people were reported killed by the blast, the airburst's effects were felt over an enormous area.
Despite the potential threat, Hadfield emphasized that it's far more likely the asteroid will miss Earth altogether. Currently, there's a 97.7 percent chance that 2024 YR4 will safely by. However, the odds of a collision have recently increased slightly from an initial 1.2 percent. Though this change may seem alarming, experts, including MIT's Richard P. Binzel, stress that minor shifts in probability are normal as new data is collected.