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We know that Grand Theft Auto is going to be a real bombshell from day one. Rockstar Games' new video game has everything it takes to become one of the most successful titles in history. So much so that the first sales predictions place it in one of the highest positions in the ranking of best-selling games.
This has been estimated by DFC Intelligence, a strategic market research and consulting firm specializing in video games. After establishing different parameters and studying the situation of the industry, they have predicted that GTA 6 will sell around 40 million copies in its first year.
They also estimate that it will reach 100 million by 2030. With these figures, it would break into the top five above such successful works as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Red Dead Redemption 2 or Wii Sports, among many others.
Grand Theft Auto 6 will not sur its predecessor
However, DFC Intelligence's analysis concludes that it will be unable to sur Grand Theft Auto and its 205 million. To some extent, this makes sense. While it may seem strange, the success of GTA 5 makes it a rara avis in the market.
In 2025, more than 10 years after its launch, it is still one of the best-selling titles annually due to the tremendous success of its online mode, its role-playing servers and its communities. However, this does not mean that it cannot be sured in certain areas.
DFC Intelligence concluded that GTA VI would achieve sales worth $3 billion in its first year, achieving a peak of 50 million active s in its best month. This would put it well ahead of GTA 5, whose peak monthly active s is 31.4 million.
Considering these figures, it seems impossible for GTA 6 to be crowned the best-selling game of all time, falling far behind other great successes such as Minecraft or Tetris (if we consider the sales of all its mobile games and not the best-selling one, since the figure ranges between 100 and 500 million depending on the scale used).
"GTA V has 11 years of sales history and revenues increased in years 7, 8 and 9, reaching around $1 billion in years 8 and 9. Because of this long-term success, we believe GTA VI will get off to a faster start. Sales should exceed $1 billion before it launches through pre-orders," DFC founder David Cole told GLHF (via ESPN).
This means that although GTA VI may sell fewer units, it would generate more profit than its predecessor. DFC Intelligence estimated that (in the long term) it could generate twice the revenue of GTA 5, which is crazy (in a good way).
It doesn't stop there. IDG Consulting, another market research group in the video game world, conducted its own studies. As TheGamer reports, they said the following: "We believe it will be one of the biggest entertainment launches in history, not just in gaming but in all media. The pent-up demand is greater than anything we've seen before."
Like DFC, they believe that GTA 6 will generate millions of dollars immediately, standing out as one of the most lucrative games (if not the most) in history after its immediate launch. In fact, they believe it could set an unprecedented record in the industry.
What AI tells us
Out of curiosity, we decided to input this data along with the best-selling games in history, their earnings (if available), their simultaneous player peaks, etc. into different AIs to see what their prediction was. The results, in general, do not differ much from what was seen by DFC Intelligence, although there are some interesting variables.
Most of them took DFC's data as valid, considering that the 40 million units sold in its first year is a very accurate estimate thanks to the tremendous success of its predecessor. Thus, all believe that it will achieve tremendous initial sales records.
As for the maximum number of units sold by 2036 (emulating GTA 5's 11 years on the market), none of them believe it will be able to reach the 205 million of GTA 5 in the same time frame (11 years). In fact, they believe that its predecessor will continue to sell even with GTA 6 available.
Of course, they establish a lower sales ratio, but they will coexist at least for a while. In general, their figures agree, but ChatGPT is somewhat more optimistic with regard to the total number of copies sold.
In the queries we made, it offered different results, as you know how AI is. However, in most of them it ended up establishing an average of 150 million units sold in that period, getting much closer to GTA 5 than DFC Intelligence estimates.
In addition, he offered a kind of conclusion. Although it may not seem like it, Grand Theft Auto 5 is both the best friend and the worst enemy of Grand Theft Auto 6. He stated that GTA 6 will be a great sales success thanks to GTA 5, but a good part of its community will not make the leap.
We asked Grok, another AI that has gained a lot of relevance recently, to give us its unfiltered opinion. It said:
GTA 6 won't be able to beat GTA 5, but...
Why won't GTA 6 be able to sur GTA 5? As has happened in many other sagas and games with similar characteristics, a good number of s will not want to move to GTA 6 because they do not want to lose all the content they have accumulated over the years.
In other words, GTA V has been able to create a sense of loyalty through both achievement and track record. By staying in GTA Online for so many years and developing all kinds of stories, obtaining dozens of content and investing part of their money, many s will avoid the change.
This would be one of the main reasons why GTA VI will not be able to sur GTA 5 in the same time frame. It might be able to match that 250 million in 15 years, but it's too complex an estimate to offer any real conclusion.
Personally, I don't think it will either, because what Rockstar's fifth (numbered) installment has done is something very difficult to replicate. It's one of those once-in-a-lifetime cases, as has happened with Minecraft, League of Legends or Fortnite.
It is very difficult to replace something with which we have been united for years, requiring a transition process with very long deadlines. In any case, what no one doubts is that Grand Theft Auto 6 will be a real success and that it will become one of the best-selling and highest-grossing games in history in just one year, a feat that very few can achieve...