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For the 2024 Fantasy Football season, it's crucial to steer clear of running backs who may be overvalued in your draft, as they might not live up to their draft position. Here are five backs you might want to avoid picking in your drafts this year:
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
ADP: 12th overall
Concerns: Gibbs is currently being drafted as a top-tier running back, but David Montgomery's presence in the Detroit backfield limits his ceiling. Montgomery is likely to get the majority of goal-to-go touches and carries between the tackles, which could cap Gibbs' fantasy upside. Historically, it's rare for two players from the same team to meet high ADP expectations, as both players are competing for touches.
Stats: In his rookie season, Gibbs showed flashes of brilliance, but his role was inconsistent. If Montgomery continues to siphon carries, especially in the red zone, Gibbs may struggle to return value on his ADP, despite his value to the Lions as a receiver out of the backfield.
2. Aaron Jones (MIN)
ADP: 54th overall
Concerns: Jones is moving into his age-30 season after an injury-riddled 2023. Running backs in this age range often see a steep decline in production. Jones' situation is further complicated by Ty Chandler's presence in the Vikings' backfield. Chandler has flashed significant potential and could split carries with Jones.
Stats: Jones' efficiency dropped significantly in 2023, as he posted his lowest points per game (12.3) since 2018. Despite a strong finish in the last few games, his overall decline in advanced metrics suggests he may not bounce back to RB2 status.
3. James Cook (BUF)
ADP: 36th overall
Concerns: Cook's performance in 2023 was highly volatile. He started strong but faded during the fantasy playoffs, which managers must consider when drafting him. Rookie Ray Davis has ed the Bills' backfield, too, and this could further reduce Cook's red-zone opportunities and limit his touchdown upside.
Stats: Cook finished 2023 with 1,122 rushing yards (4th among RBs) but only managed 33 red-zone carries, ranking 29th in the league. His lack of goal-line work makes him a risky pick at his current ADP.
4. Rachaad White (TB)
ADP: 65th overall
Concerns: White showed potential in 2023, but his yards per carry were below league average, prompting efficiency concerns. With Tampa Bay unlikely to be among the NFL's top offenses, White's fantasy output could decline -- especially with competition for touches in the Bucs' backfield.
Stats: White's YPC was just 3.7 in 2023, and his inability to break big plays consistently makes him a risky bet in 2024, especially in a less dynamic offense.
5. Zamir White (LV)
ADP: 140th overall
Concerns: White is part of a crowded Raiders backfield, as he will compete ofr touches with Alexander Mattison. In addition, a lack of game-changing offensive players means Las Vegas will likely be trailing more often than not -- and if that's the case, the Raiders will be dialing up plays instead of calling runs for comparatively modest gains.
Stats: White had limited production in 2023, and with the Raiders potentially shifting away from a run-heavy approach, his volume could be even lower in 2024.