Conclave 2025 Candidates: Which Cardinals are the favourites to be the new Pope?

The reforms of the Francis era, which included a diverse group of cardinals, make it almost impossible to designate his successor, according to experts.

Cardinals from around the world will meet this week to formally begin the selection of the next pope in a secret ballot following the funeral of the late Pope Francis on April 26. The vote will take place behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel sometime after May 7.

Choosing the next leader of the Catholic Church is a momentous and eagerly awaited task. The Church has some 1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics worldwide.

New elections in the Vatican in search of the new Pope

Elections in the Vatican are not immune to pressure and campaigning. First, the cardinals must hold a series of congregazioni, special meetings in which they will discuss the type of leader they are looking for. While only 135 cardinals will be able to vote, as they are under 80 years of age, according to the voting rules, all cardinals can attend these meetings regardless of their age.

Roberto Regoli, professor of History of the Catholic Church at the Pontifical Gregorian University in Rome, said that, unlike a normal election, none of the Vatican's leading contenders is openly campaigning to be elected. Most people would say they don't want the job if asked, he said.

"It's a lot of work," Regoli said. "You don't have time to do anything for yourself."

The results can often be surprising, and experts are cautious about speculating in advance. In 2013, for example, Pope Francis was not even considered a favorite in the media. It was only after a speech he gave at one of the congregations that he made his mark.

What is the process and timeline for selecting the next pope?

The College of Cardinals will eventually elect one of its to be the next pope. There are currently 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are cardinal electors, as they are under the age of 80, the deadline for papal elections.

After a few days of meetings, the 135 cardinals with the right to vote will meet in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican on May 7 in what is known as a "conclave". They will not have access to telephones, the internet or the outside world. No cardinal will be allowed to leave until a name is announced, except in exceptional circumstances.

The cardinals will vote in one or more secret ballots to elect the new pope. The winner needs a two-thirds majority.

Observers outside the Vatican will know that a pope has been elected by the color of the smoke coming from the chapel's chimney: black means there is no consensus, white means a new pope has been declared.

Conclaves usually last several days or, in some cases, weeks. Pope Francis was elected in two days.

Who are the cardinals with the right to vote?

Francis' reforms changed the composition of the College of Cardinals. He appointed 80% of the current cardinals, selecting them from all over the world - with a particular emphasis on the Global South - and choosing people with different ideological leanings.

For the first time, countries such as Mongolia, Iran and East Timor will be represented. Among the cardinals are people who are conservative on issues such as same-sex marriage and divorce, as well as others who are less orthodox. The greater diversity of opinion - and the much greater representation of the Global South - makes this vote particularly unpredictable, according to experts.

What do cardinals look for in a new pope?

In their pre-conclave meetings, the cardinals will try to decide whether they prefer a liberal-minded leader like the late Pope Francis, a more traditionalist pontiff like his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, or someone with moderate tendencies.

The cardinals will also likely look for someone with experience in international diplomacy, Regoli said, given that the world is facing multiple conflicts and changing geopolitical dynamics. The Church would prefer someone who is not too young, to ensure a relatively short term.

Ideology and geography will also play a role, Miles Pattenden, a historian and fellow at the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera.

"Francis was known for his spontaneity, and the Church might be looking to choose someone more cautious in their reactions," he said. And, with the growing Catholic population in Asia and Africa, cardinals might want to send the message that an Asian or African pope is more representative.

However, personal charm is the secret ingredient. Since many of the cardinals have rarely met, it is difficult to know who might get along with whom

The next pope will be the cardinal who, without appearing to do so, can convince others that he can represent the Church globally and address the challenges facing the Church: adapting to secularization and dealing well with recent sexual and financial scandals, as well as declining hip in the West.

The Cardinals favorites for the election

When the 135 cardinals taking part in the election decide who the next pope will be, Cardinal Dominique Mamberti will be the one to announce the famous phrase "habemus papam".

Luis Antonio Tagle (67 years old)

Filipino cardinal who was archbishop of Manila, the capital of the Philippines. In 2019, Francis appointed him prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples at the Vatican. He has always insisted on the importance of inclusion and social justice.

Peter Turkson (76 years old)

He is also a cardinal and is from Ghana. He was among the candidates for Pope in 2013, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected. He is considered a moderate, with a good disposition to address issues such as economic justice and the environment. He was prefect of the Vatican's Dicastery for Integral Human Development until 2021

Matteo Zuppi (69 years old)

He was born in Italy and is archbishop of Bologna. He currently chairs the Italian Episcopal Conference. Very sensitive to migrants and the poor, he has always been very close to the Sant'Egidio Community, which takes care of them and also mediates in international conflicts. Francis on a "peace mission" to Ukraine where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and then to the United States to see former President Joe Biden.

Pietro Parolin (70 years old)

He is the current Vatican Secretary of State, that is, the number two in the Holy See. He was appointed by Francis in 2013, shortly after he became Pope. Always with moderation, he has developed a long diplomatic career over the years. He is Italian.

Juan Jose Omella (77 years old)

He is Spanish and currently serves as archbishop of Barcelona. A former president of the Spanish Episcopal Conference, he was created cardinal by Pope Francis in 2017

Luis Francisco Ladaria Ferrer (81 years old)

A Jesuit, he was born in Spain. He was prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith and was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2018. Ladaria Ferrer will not be able to vote for the next pope, but he can be chosen as Bergoglio's successor despite being 81 years old.

Raymond Leo Burke (76 years old)

One of the cardinals most critical of Francis for being, like many in the US episcopal conference, very close to the poor. Appointed cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2010, he opposed many of the changes proposed by Francis, including that divorced and remarried couples could receive the Eucharist, or give space to homosexuals.

Peter Erdö (72 years old)

He is currently the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and was president of the European Bishops' Conference. He also rejects communion for divorced or remarried people. John Paul II created him cardinal in 2013. He considers the act of receiving refugees fleeing from countries in conflict, with climate or economic problems as "human trafficking".

Gerhard Ludwig Müller (78 years old)

He served as prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith until 2017. This congregation is fundamental to the Church because it is a kind of "Supreme Court" in doctrinal matters. He is German. At first he seemed to be a moderate but then became a great critic of Francis' papacy.

Willem Eijk (71 years old)

Born in the Netherlands, he is Archbishop of Utrecht. A traditionalist theologian, he opposed the reforms promoted by Pope Francis.